Property markets don’t move in straight lines. Unlike the steady 7% annual growth that many expect, property markets tend to experience growth in sharp bursts followed by flat periods. This cyclical nature is why understanding market cycle timing is critical for anyone looking to make strategic real estate investments.
The key to generating outsized returns in property is being able to identify when a property market is at the beginning of its next surge in price growth. The reality is, property markets rarely follow a smooth, predictable path. Instead, they experience periods of rapid, exponential growth over a few years, followed by slower periods of correction or flat-lining. Over the long term, this averages out to that typical 7% growth rate, but the key is knowing when to buy so you can take advantage of those growth surges.
Most investors don’t talk about this concept, but in my experience, timing is everything in real estate. Getting into a market just before its next growth cycle can make a huge difference to your investment returns.
Let me give you an example. I had a client who purchased a property in Perth for $500,000 in 2010. By 2021, the property was valued at just $556,000—an average annual growth rate of only 1%. He had saved up a bit and wanted to improve his position, so we took advantage of the equity he had built, refinanced the property, and used $50,000 to invest in another market.
At the time, the Perth market had been stagnant for over a decade, but after analysing the indicators, it became clear that it was due for a significant rebound. While waiting for Perth’s recovery, we bought a property in Adelaide for $348,000. This market was also slow at the time, but it had the potential for exponential growth. Fast forward to last week, and that Adelaide property has been valued at $550,000—an incredible return in just a few years.
But here’s where timing becomes even more critical. Despite the lacklustre performance of the Perth property over 11 years, I advised my client not to sell. Based on market cycle timing, Perth was finally on the cusp of its next surge. Sure enough, two years later, that property came back with a valuation of $950,000. That’s nearly doubling its value after a decade of doing almost nothing.
People often say, “You can’t time the market,” but in real estate, that’s not entirely true. While you can’t predict every turn, real estate cycles often follow a recognisable pattern if you know what to look for. Markets don’t grow at a constant rate; they grow in bursts, typically over a 3-year period of exponential growth followed by a few years of correction or stagnation.
This is why timing is so important. If you can get into a market just before the next growth surge, you can ride the wave of appreciation rather than waiting through the flat years.
Of course, market cycle timing isn’t just about gut feeling—it’s about data. By analysing macro and microeconomic indicators, you can get a pretty good sense of when a market is poised for growth. Some of the key indicators I look for include:
– Supply and Demand: Markets with low supply and high demand are often ripe for price growth.
– Infrastructure Development: New infrastructure like transport links, schools, and commercial developments often signal that an area is about to see increased demand.
– Historical Price Trends: Studying how a market has performed over the past 10-15 years can provide clues as to when the next growth phase might occur.
In the case of Perth, we saw a city that had been dormant for a decade but was starting to show signs of life again. The same was true of Adelaide—historical trends showed that it was due for a growth spurt, and the local market conditions confirmed it.
The power of market cycle timing is clear when you consider the results. My client turned $50,000 of equity from a slow-growing Perth property into over $200,000 in just a few years by investing in the right market at the right time. And by holding onto his Perth property, he saw his equity jump another $500,000 in just a few more years.
That’s the beauty of market cycle timing—it allows you to maximise returns by entering markets during their high-growth phases. It’s not about chasing the next big thing or jumping into overheated markets; it’s about recognising where the potential lies and getting in before the crowd does.